Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 1.386307 1.454603 1.525217 1.603847 1.689154 1.779126 1.881479
2025-10-26 1.280627 1.377291 1.481313 1.602207 1.739656 1.892046 2.075158
2025-11-02 1.209698 1.322488 1.447169 1.596417 1.771842 1.973584 2.226273
2025-11-09 1.146107 1.268489 1.406561 1.575658 1.779706 2.021408 2.334773
2025-11-16 1.093263 1.222253 1.370247 1.554994 1.782967 2.060030 2.430416
2025-11-23 1.058342 1.194250 1.352632 1.553933 1.807694 2.123885 2.559634
2025-11-30 1.033297 1.176125 1.345021 1.563384 1.844371 2.203150 2.712882
2025-12-07 0.997753 1.143346 1.317495 1.545710 1.844255 2.233110 2.799713
2025-12-14 0.961037 1.107474 1.284317 1.518722 1.829708 2.241787 2.855714
2025-12-21 0.932548 1.080583 1.261050 1.502984 1.828515 2.267458 2.936546
2025-12-28 0.919189 1.071916 1.260156 1.515881 1.865766 2.347522 3.102688
2026-01-04 0.902363 1.058119 1.251932 1.518313 1.888214 2.407200 3.241813
2026-01-11 0.889475 1.049333 1.250347 1.530217 1.925358 2.491735 3.429968
2026-01-18 0.871186 1.032983 1.238239 1.527169 1.940955 2.545189 3.572791
2026-01-25 0.853220 1.016394 1.225084 1.521849 1.952557 2.592672 3.709213
2026-02-01 0.830974 0.993508 1.202711 1.502610 1.942518 2.605655 3.786602
2026-02-08 0.809985 0.971686 1.181053 1.483448 1.931470 2.615990 3.859572
2026-02-15 0.796857 0.959886 1.172510 1.482464 1.947419 2.669908 4.016253
2026-02-22 0.787955 0.953416 1.170924 1.491229 1.978344 2.749703 4.229340
2026-03-01 0.770624 0.935155 1.152556 1.474835 1.969404 2.762492 4.313949
2026-03-08 0.751057 0.913435 1.128837 1.449787 1.945771 2.748969 4.344690
2026-03-15 0.735891 0.897356 1.112556 1.435170 1.937938 2.761859 4.430084
2026-03-22 0.730330 0.894203 1.114201 1.447149 1.972891 2.850788 4.683245